Eine Befürworterin dieser These ist beispielsweise die US-amerikanische Analystin Rachel Bitecofer, die den Erfolg der Demokraten bei den. Rachel Bitecofer ist sich ihrer Sache sicher. Deshalb prognostizierte die Politologin, die für die Washingtoner Denkfabrik Niskanen Center. Autoren: Bitecofer, Rachel. Vorschau. Emphasizes campaign strategy, an area that is underdeveloped in the presidential campaign literature; Features a very.
The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential ElectionThis book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves. Rachel Bitecofer ist sich ihrer Sache sicher. Deshalb prognostizierte die Politologin, die für die Washingtoner Denkfabrik Niskanen Center. Autoren: Bitecofer, Rachel. Vorschau. Emphasizes campaign strategy, an area that is underdeveloped in the presidential campaign literature; Features a very.
Rachel Bitecofer Navigation menu VideoSALT Talks: Rachel Bitecofer - Senior Fellow, Elections, The Niskanen Center This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is out with her forecasts for this November’s elections –. About The Cycle. The Cycle is a digital platform for news and politics founded by Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. Mar 24, at AM NEWPORT NEWS — Rachel Bitecofer, an election forecaster who regularly appears on national media outlets, plans to leave her job with Christopher Newport University this. In today’s edition, I’m talking to Rachel Bitecofer again. She’s the pollster I interviewed last winter who — at the time — had already released her election predictions for the presidential, Senate and House races. Bitecofer (right) on CNN in February discussing her election models. Bitecofer, a year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political. 2/6/ · Rachel Bitecofer has a decorative nameplate on her desk at Christopher Newport University. | Julia Rendleman for Politico Magazine. In , the election that truly embarrassed the experts Author: David Freedlander. 12/3/ · Rachel Bitecofer is a nationally recognized election forecaster and a senior fellow at The Niskanen Center in Washington D.C. where in addition to her groundbreaking election analysis and election forecasting research on the presidential and congressional elections, she conducts pro-democracy research. When I first interviewed Rachel Bitecofer in February of , the country was a vastly different place than it is right now. Most notably, COVID was hardly on our radar and we did not yet have any idea who the Democratic candidates for president and vice president would khokhlova-novitski.com: Isaac Saul.
I mean my god. Biden, Lincoln, the outside groups: they threw the best persuasion messaging in the history of persuasion campaigns at them.
What Ds need to do is come to terms that when it comes to the electorate, the very 1st thing that matters is party ID , and this includes Indie leaners.
Right leaning Indies- which make up a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side.
Did I state that plainly enough? You want to know why Rs are willing non-college voters? They tell them what they want to hear.
Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers. With the Bush administration, that was kind of true going through eight years of his presidency.
And then in his second term, the Iraq War reality started to settle in. But once the economic collapse came in and really got into the last couple of months, suddenly his approval started to drop below With Trump, that has never happened.
He's set to get shellacked, but he's still not Jimmy Carter in shellacked. So that said, when I talked to you in February, we had one effect.
And that the midwest would be obviously out of reach for the Republicans and that's exactly what we see right now.
We see the midwest out of reach for the Republicans. I wrote this in the forecast and you can go back and look at it — it was a profound misunderstanding of how Trump won the midwest in the first place.
It wasn't winning over this big revolution of white working-class voters. Of course, in my theory, I also talk about a certain segment of independents.
Because most independents are leaners, so leaners are basically closet partisans, they are not persuadable. I can show you in the data that independent-leaners are almost no different in their vote propensity for Trump than people who are admitted Republicans.
My theory has always argued that the pure independents were going to break against Trump this cycle. In , Trump had the advantage of being the outsider coming against an incumbent power that has been in power for eight years.
He was the anti-status quo candidate. Pure independents are generally not highly informed, highly engaged voters. And they generally don't like the party in power.
And so my theory at the time was that they would break in favor of Biden. And then between these two parties, you have to ask is there a breaking in favor of one party or the other.
Usually, we're talking This year we have this second effect, I'm calling it the pandemic effect. Instead of it being , these pure independents are more like in favor of Biden, and so when we look at why Biden's advantages have extended in the last couple of months, it's that extended growth amongst that group of voters and some of them are seniors.
So my sole update [the one released this week] talks about two effects, right? But also a deeper map.
We're really seeing now potential for Texas to flip. And they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't really feel that there is some potentiality for that state to be competitive.
The state has really helped out by the way, by the fact that it's had a ton of down-ballot activity in the state legislature.
The state legislature is very likely going to flip control, they're nine seats away, and almost half the competitive House seats are in Texas.
So, anyway, a deeper map. And it's because of these two effects working together. Tangle: That kind of leads me into my next question.
The model on the website you have, it looks like there are really four serious toss-ups that you have, which are Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the others have a lean.
So I took the liberty of just turning those leans red and blue, and it came out to about a to electoral college lead for Biden over Trump, with those four states remaining as toss-ups.
So, I guess I'm just curious from your perspective, a are we really looking at a landslide of that proportion? And b if so, it seems like you guys feel pretty strongly that the Democratic Senate majority is in play right now, right?
Bitecofer: Oh yes. Basically my view for in Congress is not only are Democrats going to hold onto their seat gain in the House, they are going to be on offense.
And here is where that offense is going to be playing now. And in terms of the Senate, I was arguing that Colorado and Arizona were basically done deals.
But they need to net four though, not three, because they are probably going to lose Doug Jones' seat down in Alabama.
Trump is going to win Alabama, so you have to imagine a scenario in which Alabama people voting for Trump are going to crossover and vote for Doug Jones.
And most of Jaime Harrison's hopes and dreams come from the potential of a huge Black voter turnout surge. His pathway doesn't have to rely purely on Trump-Harrison voters.
And so Doug Jones needs Trump-Jones voters and a lot of them. And he's got more Black voters than McGrath, so he's in a better spot and him and Harrison are kind of in equal positions in that regard, but what Harrison has that Jones doesn't have is an enemy.
Harrison is running against Lindsey Graham, and Lindsey Graham is maligned. On the other hand, Doug Jones is running against an ex-Alabama football coach [laughs].
So that fourth seat to me has always been North Carolina, and the sex scandal down there notwithstanding. It's a sex scandal! It has caused that persuasion band amongst those pure independents to be so deep, so much bigger than what it would have been previously, that the Senate map — you've got Iowa, you've got the two Georgia senate seats, you've got Montana and you've got Kansas.
So the GOP has basically five or six pathways they have to defend to keep that 4th seat, you know what I mean? And that's a lot of holes in a dike that you have to fill to keep that majority.
Do you see what I'm saying? All of them, every day, look increasingly harder to defend, you know? The advantage that the Republican party has is that Democrats are still not Republicans in terms of electioneering and messaging.
So I'm curious, if the models are so different, why are they producing such similar results? What's happening there?
Bitecofer: Let me tell you this, number one, I'm putting out this stuff months and months and months ahead of time. And at that time David Wasserman had put out an analysis in a piece that he was really, really passionately defending, arguing that Democrats would have to win the popular national vote in the House by at least 10 points to win 23 seats because of gerrymandering.
The only question is how many more seats and my guesstimate is they're going to pick up like 42 seats. So what you're referring to now is exactly the same thing.
Because everyone gets there in the end. Tangle: So the last time that we spoke, I asked you explicitly after you showed me your model: how does Trump pull this out?
Bitecofer has disagreed with Nate Silver 's take that ideologically extreme candidates pay a political price, believing instead that a candidate like Bernie Sanders would not cause significant downside for the Democrats, though she does not find much upside either, arguing that he did not bring many new voters to the polls in The fact that progressive favorites like Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke often came much closer to winning their races in red states in than Blue Dog moderates who tried to ingratiate themselves with Trump has been held as validation for her theory.
In July , Bitecofer predicted that President Trump would lose the election , with the Democratic candidate winning electoral votes. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Rachel Bitecofer. American political scientist. Retrieved June 12, Daily Press.Rachel Bitecofer ist eine amerikanische Politikwissenschaftlerin. Sie schrieb das Buch The Unprecedented Presidential Election über die Wahl von Donald Trump und arbeitet in der Politik- und Wahlanalyse. Autoren: Bitecofer, Rachel. Vorschau. Emphasizes campaign strategy, an area that is underdeveloped in the presidential campaign literature; Features a very. The Unprecedented Presidential Election. von Rachel Bitecofer · The Unprecedented Presidential Election. € 51, In den Warenkorb. Lieferung in. This book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves. So, anyway, a deeper map. Bitecofer: Let me Intelipoker you this, number one, I'm putting out this stuff months and months and months ahead of time. American political scientist. Timothy K. With El Gordo Ziehung Uhrzeit a couple of weeks to go until election day, I wanted to follow up with Bitecofer and see where her model stands now. Instead, her bullishness on Democrats winning the presidency, retaking the Senate and picking up the House Intelipoker grown — but only modestly. The state has really helped out by the way, by Spanische Werbung fact that it's Euroleague Aktuell a ton of down-ballot activity in the state legislature. We also touch on the potential for Tilt Poker Intelipoker to end the election on election night, rather than the election ending after days of counting mail-in votes across swing states. Only paying subscribers can comment Was Darf Man Mit 21 this post Subscribe. And do you know who took it? Pennsylvania is going up for grabs still? Interesting to think about. We're really seeing now potential for Texas to flip. Click the link we sent toor click here Fragen Für Wwop log in. The state legislature is very likely going to flip control, they're nine seats away, and almost half the competitive House seats are in Texas. They tell them what they want to hear. So you have no choice but to be brutally honest about it. Stay informed - Blue Virginia Newsletter weekly. Tangle: That kind of leads me into my next question. Rachel Bitecofer I'm curious, if the models are so different, why are they producing such similar results?